The rate cut cometh

August 26th, 2024

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Happy Monday, FutureParty people. In case you were worried about AI taking over the world, well… it might not. It’s starting to look like Big Tech’s extremely expensive bet on AI may not pay off like other tech booms due to its low profit margins and sky-high maintenance costs. That sounds like a bad thing, but on the upside, you might get to keep your job.

And speaking of people who matter... your brilliant opinions have inspired us to launch a Poll Of The Day newsletter because who doesn’t love hot takes? Subscribe now to amplify your voice and be part of the conversation.

In other news… an interest rate cut looms, AI makes photos untrustworthy, and young people abandon Big Tech.

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.BUSINESS.

Cut rates, cut dollars // Illustration by Kate Walker

The Fed will cut interest rates next month

The Future. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed there will finally be an interest rate cut next month — the first since the pandemic began in 2020. While the move could reduce unemployment, it might also drive a new wave of inflation if the Fed overshoots. Yay.

By the numbers
Powell revealed the planned September rate cut at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

  • The real question is how large the rate cut will be, with one tool predicting a 71.5% chance of a 25-point cut and a 28.5% chance of a 50-point cut.

  • Regardless, this would be the first rate cut in over four years, helping to lower the cost of borrowing money and thereby stimulate the economy.

  • A key factor in Powell’s decision is the weaker-than-expected labor market, highlighted by July’s disappointing jobs report, which showed unemployment rising to 4.3% and sluggish job growth.

Rock and a hard place
A rate cut would help solve the unemployment problem, as lower interest rates tend to correlate with increased economic activity and, consequently, job opportunities. The only problem is that rate cuts are also associated with higher inflation, which is already high. The goal is to walk the tightrope between inflation and recession.

Here’s to hoping. Oh, and whatever you do, don’t look down.

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77.3% of you voted Yes in Friday’s poll: Are you worried about climate change?

“My family fled south Florida back in 2018 after living in our home for generations, because a hurricane turned our backyard into just another part of the river.”

“I live very rural, in the woods of southern Oregon. Every year we have to deal with forest fires and smoke. One year we even had to evacuate. I’m worried about my homeowner’s insurance going sky-high and/or dropping me all together.”

“If we don’t act immediately, we face catastrophe. It is already late in the game. We are losing.”

Let’s keep the conversation going. Join our Poll Of The Day newsletter so your opinions can shine. Discover how your views line up with your peers’, check out cool insights, and have some fun. It’s data with personality.

.A WORD FROM OUR FRIENDS AT NIKE.

Ends soon: extra 25% off Nike sale

Cha-ching! That’s right.

For a limited time, you and your whole fam can score 25% off select Nike gear.

Get ‘em shipped right to your door, or pick ‘em up at the store.

P.S. They didn’t tell us how long the sale would go for, so don’t dilly-dally...

Media, Music, & Entertainment

  • Post Malone has made himself at home in country music. [Read More]

  • BLACKPINK’s Lisa is making history as the first K-pop soloist to perform at the VMAs. [Read More]

  • Gen Z is diving headfirst into run clubs and chess clubs — defying labels of the “loneliest generation.” [Read More]

Fashion & E-Commerce

  • E-commerce startups are switching gears in the face of a potential shakeup across the industry. [Read More]

  • Balenciaga is launching its 3XL sneaker with a very Balenciaga take on the classic high-performance running shoe. [Read More]

  • Meet the athleisure startup with a cult following and a creator-centered vision/strategy. [Read More]

Tech, Web3, & AI

  • AI researchers are increasingly worried about “model collapse” due to a potentially fatal flaw in how AI systems are developed. [Read More]

  • Tech companies are no longer the top choice for young people’s career aspirations, according to a recent survey. [Read More]

  • A former bank exec is heading to prison for 24 years after funneling $47 million into a “pig butchering” crypto scam. [Read More]

Creator Economy

  • Meta and Spotify have criticized the EU’s AI regulation as “holding back innovation.” [Read More]

  • Meta is also abandoning its plans for a high-end Vision Pro competitor. [Read More]

  • Over 300,000 users have participated in the viral IG meme that gets ChatGPT to roast your Instagram feed. [Read More]

.ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

Now you see me // Illustration by Kate Walker

Don’t believe your eyes

The Future. Historically, photographs have been considered reliable evidence of reality, playing a crucial role in shaping social consensus and documenting important events. But thanks to AI, that paradigm might be all but over — and reality is about to become a whole lot less knowable.

Blink and you’ll miss it
AI photo-editing technology is ushering in a profound shift.

  • Google’s new Pixel 9 and its AI-powered Magic Editor feature allow users to easily create highly convincing fake images.

  • This shift has profound implications for society, journalism, and justice.

  • For example, it might make it nearly impossible to document and prove controversial events like police brutality. It also could undermine the credibility of photographic evidence in legal proceedings.

Pixel perfect?
While Google claims to have safeguards in place, Sarah Jeong of The Verge argues that they’re insufficient to prevent the potential misuse of this technology.

And with the breakneck pace of tech innovation these days, our default assumptions around photos are about to undergo a major revolution — one that will have an undeniable impact on our interpretation of reality.

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.A WORD FROM OUR FRIENDS AT MASTERWORKS.

80% of investors want this asset — now it can be yours

BofA survey: 83% of HNW respondents who are 43 and younger say they currently own art or would like to.

Why? After weathering multiple recessions, newer generations want to diversify beyond just stocks and bonds.

Luckily, Masterworks’ art investing platform already caters to 65,000+ investors of every generation, making it easy to diversify with an asset that’s outpaced the S&P 500 in price appreciation (1995-2023).

To date, each of Masterworks’ 23 sales has individually returned a profit to investors. With three illustrative sales, Masterworks investors have realized net annualized returns of +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5%.

*See Important Reg A disclosures at www.masterworks.com/cd.

The content is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investing involves risk.

Art sales price data is comparative only. Each painting is unique, and historical data is not a direct proxy for any specific painting or investment. Data represents whole art, not an investment into our offerings, which include fees and expenses.

Art asset class is based on repeat-sales index of historical art market prices computed based on a value weighted-basis and focused on the Post-War & Contemporary Art category. While Masterworks believes art market comparisons to other asset classes can be useful to help potential investors discern long-term trends in these asset classes, there are significant limitations to the utility of such comparative data, particularly over shorter time periods. Potential investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such data.

Going incognito.

LATEST PODCAST EPISODE

Today, on an extra special bonus episode of Future Forecast, our hosts Boye and Chris sit down with Andrew Kenward, the President and COO of Almost Friday Media. Andrew was an agent at WME in the digital media department at WME before being brought into the Almost Friday universe in 2021. We chat with him about his career, his goals for the brand moving forward, and what it's like working in media today.

July 18, 2024

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Today’s email was written by Luke Perrotta and Melody Song.
Edited by Nick Comney. Copy edited by Kait Cunniff.
Published by Darline Salazar.

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